PlayAbly Podcast Episode 42: Beyond the Cart: What Black Friday 2025 Really Tells Us About Shoppers, Sales & What Comes Next

Black Friday 2025 broke records—but what’s really behind the $44.2 billion Cyber Week surge? In this episode of the PlayAbly Podcast, we cut through the headlines to unpack what actually drove this year’s growth. Was it real demand… or just higher prices? Which brands won (and why), who quietly lost, and what it all means for December and the overlooked but crucial Q5 window in January.

We’ll cover:

• The end of the “doorbuster” era and the rise of digital-first shopping
• How Buy Now, Pay Later is both fueling sales and signaling stress
• The surprising BNPL data no one’s talking about (hint: late payments ≠ defaults)
• Why retention beats CAC this holiday season
• How to turn gift buyers into repeat buyers in Q5
• And why “experience scaffolding” is your real holiday unlock

If you’re building for Shopify retention, VIP programs, or trying to drive deeper post-purchase engagement, this one’s for you. You’ll also learn how ecommerce gamification and shoppable games can turn the December-January dip into a high-value loyalty loop.

Links we mention:
 👉 PlayAbly — Your partner for Shopify gamification and conversion-driven experiences
👉 Explore customer loyalty programs that work beyond BFCM
👉 Build your own ecommerce quizzes and gamified experiences for Q5

Subscribe and stay ahead—because this season isn’t just about sales. It’s about what happens after.

Get Your First Month of PlayAbly free when you mention this Podcast during your free PlayAbly Demo - learn how gamification can improve your ecommerce shop at www.playably.ai

Transcript

Welcome back to the PlayAbly Podcast—where we decode what’s happening in ecommerce right now and turn it into moves you can actually make. Black Friday 2025 just wrapped, and the headlines are loud: “record spending,” “shoppers are back,” “holiday season is saved.” But if you’re a brand operator, you already know the real question isn’t “Did sales go up?”

It’s “Why did they go up—and what does that mean for the rest of December and that weird little ‘Q5’ window in January?” So today, we’re breaking down the big Black Friday reports, who actually won, who quietly lost, and how much of this growth came from real demand versus higher prices, inflation, and tariffs. Let’s get into it.

Let’s start with the scoreboard. Adobe Analytics says U.S. consumers spent about $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, up around 9% year over year. That’s a new record. Zoom out to the whole Cyber Week stretch—Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—and we’re looking at roughly $44.2 billion online, up high-single digits year over year. Cyber Monday itself is expected to land around $14.2 billion, another record. So yes: online won big. In-store? Not so much. Mastercard’s early data shows ecommerce up ~10.4%, while in-store sales rose only ~1–2%, and foot traffic actually fell. Translation: the “Black Friday doorbuster” era is basically done. The holiday battleground is digital-first, mobile-first, and algorithm-first.

Across reports, the theme wasn’t chaos—it was precision.People were buying, but they were buying carefully: extended deal windows, lots of price checks, leaning on discount depth, and a big jump in “buy now, pay later” usage, which crossed $1 billion during Cyber Week in the U.S. 

Peak shopping hours online were late morning to early afternoon—basically when people could comparison shop at work or while watching kids. And categories that won were the practical-plus-treat mix: electronics, gaming, appliances, apparel, and giftable bundles. So shoppers weren’t panicking. They were strategic.

Retail Dive’s “winners and losers” framing was useful here. The big winners weren’t just the deepest discounters—they were the brands that made shopping feel special again. Retail Dive. Think: exclusive drops, limited bundles, “gift with purchase” mechanics, store tie-ins that still pushed people online, and loyalty perks that let shoppers feel like insiders

Meanwhile, losers were mostly the brands that relied on old urgency: “24-hour sale! Now or never!” Because the consumer behavior shift is real. Black Friday has turned into a multi-day value hunt, not a single-day sprint.

If you’re listening as a brand: the win isn’t only about price. It’s about experience scaffolding around price—making the deal feel like a story customers want to be part of. Which… hello, gamification.

Okay. Let’s go deeper. Sales were up. But was spending up because people bought more stuff… or because stuff cost more?

Reports are pretty clear that inflation pressure and tariff fears are shaping behavior. Reuters notes shoppers are already reacting to expected tariff-related price hikes and focusing on necessities. AP’s coverage adds a key detail: shoppers often bought fewer items, but total dollars still rose because average prices were higher. So here’s the nuance: Top-line revenue looks healthy. But unit volume may not be growing as fast as the dollars suggest.

This matters because if growth is price-inflated rather than volume-driven, December can get choppy. Why? Because once the “I need to lock in deals before prices rise” motivation is spent, demand can cool fast—especially for discretionary categories.

So the story isn’t “consumers are back.” It’s “consumers are buying through anxiety.”

One thing that really shows how shoppers are feeling this year—especially with tariff anxiety in the background—is the jump in Buy Now, Pay Later and other financing options. Adobe and multiple holiday trackers show BNPL spending crossed about $10.1 billion since Nov. 1, up around 9% year over year, and Cyber Monday alone hit about $1.03 billion via BNPL. Adobe’s broader holiday forecast expects BNPL to drive about $20.2 billion total this season, roughly $2 billion more than last year (about 11% growth). So when we ask “what’s behind the Black Friday gains?”—part of the answer is: people are buying in the face of higher prices by spreading the pain over time. And it’s not just for luxury items anymore. Surveys show BNPL is increasingly used for basics, even groceries, which tells you this isn’t only convenience—it’s coping.

Quick translation: Tariffs and price expectations may be pulling demand forward, and BNPL is helping shoppers say “yes now” even if their budgets are tight.

From the BNPL provider side, the picture is strong but not risk-free. Klarna has been reporting continued operating profitability through 2025 and solid growth, especially in the U.S. market. They’ve also highlighted improving repayment health: Klarna’s BNPL delinquency rate fell to about 0.88% in Q2 2025 (down from ~1.03% a year earlier). Affirm and other players are riding the same wave—holiday GMV and active users up meaningfully—driven by big retail partnerships and higher-ticket categories like electronics. So the BNPL business is growing, and the top players are not currently flashing “systemic collapse” signals. But the consumer-level stress is rising.

Here’s the nuance: defaults are still relatively low, but late payments are climbing. The CFPB’s 2025 BNPL report found BNPL default rates around 2%, far lower than credit cards.

But surveys show 41% of BNPL users paid late on at least one loan in the last year, up from 34% the year before. That gap matters. Defaults = people fully not paying. Still low. Late payments = people juggling. Rising fast.

Late fees, overdrafts, and stacking multiple BNPL plans is where trouble starts. So we’re seeing more friction, not necessarily a mass blow-up.

Are we headed for debt and bankruptcy to finance a presentful Christmas? The honest answer is: not a nationwide bankruptcy wave… but a real risk pocket for certain households. Here’s why: BNPL is masking budget stress. It makes higher prices feel manageable month-to-month, which can pull spending forward.

Late payment rates rising = a warning light. Not everyone will default, but more people are on the edge of missing. BNPL users already carry more debt overall.

CFPB data shows BNPL borrowers tend to have higher balances in other debt categories too—credit cards, student loans, personal loans. Macro view is mixed.

Some banks say consumers look resilient overall, but credit risk is rising at the lower-income end. Both can be true.

So what does that mean for brands? It means December demand is being supported by financing. If household stress keeps growing into January, you can expect: more sensitivity to price, more reliance on pay-over-time, and potentially more returns or cancellations

But not necessarily a cliff. More like a slow hangover that shows up in Q5 behavior.

Closing line for the segment: BNPL isn’t the villain—it’s a tool. But this year it’s also a signal: shoppers want the holiday magic, even if they have to amortize it.

Let’s talk forward. Adobe is forecasting a strong overall holiday finish, with total U.S. holiday ecommerce projected around the low-to-mid single-digit growth range over 2024. But multiple outlets are warning about fragility underneath the headline numbers: consumer confidence weakness, higher borrowing costs, and heavier reliance on credit tools. Reuters+1

So December 2025 likely looks like this: Deals stay long. Promotions won’t stop on Cyber Monday; they’ll roll through mid-December. Value positioning wins. Not just low price—clear reason to buy. Practical gifts, bundles, durability messaging. Shipping deadlines create the last urgency spike. That’s your “second Black Friday moment.”

Returning customers matter more than new ones.CAC is still expensive, and shoppers are selective. Loyalty and reactivation are where margin survives.

Now, “Q5”—that pseudo-quarter between holiday hangover and New Year reset. If Black Friday and December were fueled partly by deal-timing and tariff anxiety, Q5 becomes a rebound zone for brands that do three things well: Turn gift buyers into repeat buyers. Post-holiday onboarding, “you might also like,” and playful re-engagement sequences. Gamify the slump. Customers are bored in January and trying to be “good.”

That’s when light, low-friction games, quizzes, and streak mechanics pull people back without needing a huge discount.

Lean into returns and exchanges as a sales channel. Treat returns like a guided shopping session, not an exit. If December is about conversion, Q5 is about relationship reset.

So yeah, Black Friday 2025 was huge—record-setting online numbers, continued shift away from stores, and a consumer who’s spending, but spending with intention and a little bit of fear. The opportunity for brands right now is to stop thinking of BFCM as a weekend.

It’s a season—with chapters. Black Friday: value hunt. December: deadline-driven gifting Q5: re-engagement and identity-building And the brands that win aren’t the ones who discount hardest.They’re the ones who make customers feel something along the way.

If you want to talk about how gamified experiences fit into this exact moment, you know where to find us. Thanks for listening to PlayAbly Podcast. See you next week.